Will China-ASEAN Ties Strengthen through COVID

According to Global Times, for the first two months of 2020, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, ranking ahead of the E.U. and the U.S. In fact, there was a 6.1% growth of China-ASEAN trade in goods in the first quarter of 2020 with a value exceeding 140 billion U.S. dollars. 

The global supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 might have increased trade volumes between ASEAN and China, but that is not the only reason. Ties between ASEAN and China already strengthened years before the pandemic when ASEAN had offset some of the impacts caused by the US-Sino trade war through expanding bilateral trade with China. 

Due to the pandemic, trade interdependencies between both regions have been increasing. China's demand for agricultural products from ASEAN members has increased, and China has also been a major source of tourists for ASEAN, with Chinese tourists accounting for about 40% of all tourists in ASEAN. 

Stronger ties but no perfect relationship 

China and ASEAN are both interested in a healthy long-term trade relationship for many reasons. ASEAN plays a key role in the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative, and both countries are involved in other bilateral initiatives like the China-ASEAN Strategic Partnership Vision 2030 and Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025. China and ASEAN also jointly promote digital trade, 5G technology, and smart city construction and are advocating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement to foster regional cooperation and development.

However, while ties between the two countries have strengthened over the past years, it's still far from a perfect relationship. There are disputes around territorial claims in the South China Sea, differences in opinion regarding trade practices, and some ASEAN member states have strong incentives to side with the U.S. in the ongoing trade war. 

For the time being, COVID-19 could continue to play a role in the future of this relationship as trade interdependencies between both regions will likely keep increasing. Only time will tell whether or not the two countries can maintain the current status of this relationship.

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