A Fractured UNITED KINGDOM and a Hard to Swallow BREXIT Pill

After two votes in parliament, Westminster has denied Theresa May both the support for her Brexit Plan, and a Strong Support for her continued Government.

In fact, the United Kingdom is now lacking both a strong Central Government and a viable Opposition, since the Opposition itself did not find enough support to completely take power away from May’s lap.

It seems there is a lack of cohesiveness or even coherence in the government in respect to the Brexit crisis, which mirrors the lack of cohesion in the UK public’s perception of the situation, in general. Factually, during the Brexit Referendum there was an almost even break in the support of one or the other alternatives.

Let’s remember, that the EU is the world’s largest Trading Bloc, and the second largest economy, after the USA.  In fact, the EU was originally named as The Economic Community Common Market. The EU’s trade policies seek to create growth and jobs by increasing trade opportunities and investments for all its members.

As such, the uncertainty which exists over Brexit has slowed the UK’s growth to 1.3% in year 2018.  It could slow down to 1.9% in 2019, explains Phillip Hammond, the UK’s Treasury Chief, if Parliament is unable to find a positive solution.

A “Hard Brexit” would create the following direct consequences:

-      Eliminate Britain’s tariff-free trade status with the other EU members.

-      New Tariffs would raise the cost of Exports.

-      Tariffs would hurt UK exporters directly as their products would immediately become high-priced.

-      The UK would lose the advantages of EU’s state-of-the-art technologies

-      All UK companies would lose the ability to bid on public contracts in any EU country; Services and Banking would be the ones affected the most.

-      A “United” Ireland? A Hard Brexit would force the creation of a new customs border between the two Irelands. With over 30,000 commuters passing these new customs every day on their way to work, many a Northern Irelander would want to remain in the EU; thus, there could be a call for a referendum and the opportunity to “rejoin” the country of Ireland.

-      Scotland could simply decide to leave the UK.  In the original Brexit vote, almost 65% of Scotland’s vote was to STAY in the EU.

A “No Deal Brexit” would have these consequences:

-       The UK would lose all its Trade Agreements with the EU

-       All tariffs would be re-imposed

-       Tariffs would increase prices of imports into the UK – Consider that over 1/3 of the UK’s food comes from the EU

-       Higher import prices would create inflation.

-       Custom delays could also create food shortages

-       Because of extensive drought and global warming the UK is already experiencing a reduced food output; therefore, this problem could easily worsen

So now, May is presenting her “Plan B” to the Parliament. However, could there –really- be an option not being thought of yet, since, in accordance with May’s original proposal, that was the best deal which could be reached?

Now that Parliament has cut off the legs from May’s original proposal, and there is no better or possible alternative for a European secession, could the UK Government bring back the alternative of staying in the EU? Or even, a new Referendum? We know Scotland would prefer the latter two alternatives.

Churchill, Thatcher, Blair seemed to have risen from the dawn of Crisis which appeared to be ready to swallow the UK whole.  A new majority may be brewing and a new leadership might just be ready to take the torch and carry it safely to a new port.  Perhaps, new elections shall be called. Perhaps, even a new Referendum.

Perhaps, the nation will come together, heal the fracture and become united again, behind a new leadership, which can offer hope and a clear vision on how to obtain it.

The UK Government and its people need and deserve a solution… and that solution shall be found within themselves.